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Seeing that the time has come to the end of September, the “Golden Nine” that the textile people expect is not coming. The entire textile market is still in a tepid state, and the quantity and quality of orders are not up. The reason is, in the final analysis, the same sentence - buy up and not buy.
Stumbled, the industry chain is sluggish, "Golden Nine" has not yet
PTA articles
Because of the reason for the futures market, PTA is the most serious in buying and not buying. As long as the price of PTA rises, and then there are a few good news, hot money will flood into this market, and the price of PTA will continue to push up. Driven by futures, the spot price will also soar.
Beginning in mid-July this year, because the price of upstream PX continued to rise, PTA also ushered in a wave of rising prices. The whole market continued until the end of August. The spot price of PTA rose from 6,000 yuan to more than 9,000 yuan, and futures were soaring. The largest increase in the 1809 futures rose more than 60%.
However, the price of PX is still stable at the beginning of September. As the market is bearish, PTA futures will start to turn sharply. On September 17, the spot price of PTA also began to dive under the influence of futures, and plunged 1,500 yuan in 3 days.
Polyester filament
As a raw material for polyester filament, PTA has a great impact on polyester plants. When the PTA just rose, although the market is still in the off-season, the polyester factory has a very good day. The high level of profits plus the rising tide of purchases, chemical fiber companies can be said to earn a lot of money.
However, after the time came to August, the PTA rose more than expected, and the downstream did not accept the high raw material prices. The textile clusters around the country issued a joint production stoppage proposal, pointing to the chemical fiber leader.
After entering September, PTA futures began to fall, and the downstream price of polyester filaments was bearish, and the production and sales of polyester filaments began to deteriorate. Then the entire polyester filament market is caught in a vicious circle where the lower the price, the worse the production and sales, and the lower the production and sales, the lower the price.
Downstream weaving
Compared to PTA and polyester yarn factories, downstream woven fabric companies are smaller and more dispersed, and have lower tolerance to raw material changes.
The profit of traditional weaving factories is often around 5%, but polyester filaments have risen more than 40% in a month. Even if the profits of conventional products in the first half of this year are better, they can't stand the cost.
Some companies that can't bear it have started to stop production and stop production, and traders can't make a list. If the price is high, you can't make money, but the price is low, and the high raw material price makes the manufacturers discouraged.
September is the traditional textile season. In September last year, dyeing factories broke out, and large and small orders were emerging. Manufacturers would like to expand the production capacity several times. Basically, how many cloths can be sold, and the supply is in short supply. In September this year, raw materials have been At the price drop, everyone is watching and waiting for the price to come down. Under the mentality of buying up and not buying down, the textile market in September this year was not warm and could not afford the title of "peak season".
Good and frequent, supply and demand reverse, "Silver 10" can be expected
Cost face
On the evening of September 24, the British Brent crude oil price broke through 80 US dollars / barrel, setting a new high after the international oil price fell in 2015.
At the close, WTI November crude oil futures closed up 1.30 US dollars, or 1.84%, to 72.08 US dollars / barrel. Brent November crude oil futures closed up 2.40 US dollars, or 3.05%, to 81.20 US dollars / barrel, the highest since November 2014.
Crude oil suddenly rose, supporting the price of polyester products from the cost side. Under the influence of crude oil, PX began to rebound and rebound, and the price of PTA spot was also stabilized. It is believed that the price of polyester filament will soon remain stable.
Supply surface
After September, as the price of polyester products began to fall, production and sales weakened. Various major manufacturers have started production reduction plans.
In terms of PTA, according to statistics, the average operating rate of PTA has now dropped to 75.1%, the real-time operating rate is 75.1%, and the effective operating rate is concentrated at 84.9%. According to market news, a 1.5 million tons PTA plant in East China is scheduled to be shut down for maintenance on the 23rd of this month, which is expected to last for about one month. Another 1.2 million tons of PTA plant in East China is expected to be overhauled for 3 weeks from October 3.
In terms of polyester filament yarn, due to the low production and sales, the polyester plant has started to cut production and production frequently. As of now, the polyester operating rate has dropped to 80.01%.
Demand side
Although the quantity and quality of orders have not risen in September this year, the total demand for the entire autumn and winter market will not change much. For apparel brands, the cost of manufacturing clothing is much lower than its marketing costs. The increase in the cost of grey fabrics has a limited impact on the ready-to-wear brand.
In terms of exports, although affected by the Sino-US trade war and exchange rate, the foreign trade enterprises have a hard time this year, but because the Southeast Asian countries in the textile industry are difficult to challenge China's low position in a short period of time, Chinese textiles are still difficult to replace in the short term.
Under the combined effect of cost, supply and demand, I believe that the October market will be significantly better than September.
Although "Golden Nine" has not arrived, "Silver Ten" is especially late!
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