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The "May Day" that has passed is almost an extra long vacation for all textile people. Three days are common, five days are many, and seven days are available. However, the holiday is not always accompanied by happiness and joy for textile people. For example, this time, according to the surveyed enterprises, affected by the overseas epidemic, orders have generally decreased by at least 30% so far this year, and more companies are even around 50%. . Order reductions, inventory backlogs, and lack of funds have continued from the beginning of the resumption of work to the present, making it difficult for some textile people to fully relax and enjoy the long vacation.
Now that the holiday has been over for more than a week, the textile people have already separated themselves, and some countries have reported that some countries have begun to relax restrictions. Are there signs of improvement in fabric demand?
No signs of improvement in foreign trade
Domestic trade orders take the lead
Foreign trade has always been an important part of textile orders. All the textile off-season this year is so serious. The main reason is that the weakened demand caused by the outbreak of overseas epidemics. Recently, although many countries have begun to gradually loosen travel restrictions, the economy has begun to slowly recover. But "the foreign trade order has not improved" is almost the answer of all the surveyed enterprises with a uniform caliber.
Foreign trade orders haven't improved yet, on the one hand because it is now countries with limited demand, such as Norway, Spain, and Austria, that have liberalized travel restrictions. And large demanders like the United States have not completely lifted the restrictions, and naturally a large number of orders cannot be placed immediately.
On the other hand, even if the restrictions are lifted by overseas countries, the economic recovery will take some time. In particular, the life and production rhythms of some foreign countries are relatively slow, and it may take longer to resume production and resume work. This also caused the textile foreign trade orders not to be transmitted to the fabric end in time.
However, domestic trade orders have seen a lot of outstanding performance recently. According to a person in charge of an enterprise, they are doing Nisifang. Although there are no foreign trade orders recently, there are more than 100,000 meters of domestic Nisifang orders. Another textile company also feels the same. They mainly make products such as artificial silk. The company has not yet carried out foreign trade orders, but the domestic women's clothing fabrics it is making now exceed 300,000 meters per month.
The signs of loosening in the domestic trade market have become very obvious, and gradually recovered as China's economy emerged from the epidemic. Domestic trade orders may explode in full, in addition, foreign trade orders will be successively placed as overseas work resumes.
Gray cloth inventory polarization
Boot rate is still high
Different from the situation that most textile enterprises take long vacations during the May Day holiday, weaving enterprises do not take many vacations. Even the vacation time of the surveyed enterprises is not long, most of them are around 1 day.
However, the inventory is not unified, and the differentiation is obvious. Some enterprises have only 100,000 meters of grey cloth inventory, or even no production; others produce in 50 days or even 60 days. This difference is mainly due to the different sources of orders. Most of the enterprises with less grey cloth inventory are mainly due to the large number of domestic trade orders being made, which consumes most of the inventory; enterprises that are also completely dependent on foreign trade orders, at this time, the demand is not strong, and the insufficient amount of grey cloths causes the inventory pressure .
Although there are obvious differences among grey cloth inventory companies, the operating rate is at a high level. Among the surveyed enterprises, some weaving mills are around 80%, and some even start production, and there is no plan to reduce production in the short term.
In the final analysis, it is still a question of cost. Although we have always believed that production cuts and production cuts and workers ’vacations will definitely reduce costs and cut expenses, in fact, these alone are not enough. Although these expenses cannot be avoided when the factory is started, there are also grey cloth output, and most chemical fiber grey cloths are easy to store and suitable for long-term stacking. The blind shutdown cannot avoid expenses such as rent, depreciation of machinery, social security, and employee subsidies, but also has to face the embarrassing situation of a one-meter fabric output. Therefore, it is understandable that the weaving mill will not stop production and start high.
Weaving start rate is high
Raw material demand is not strong
The start-up rate of weaving enterprises has always been the vane of the demand for raw materials. The higher the start-up rate, the greater the demand for raw materials, and the lower the demand for raw materials is naturally lower. However, although the startup rate of the surveyed companies is generally high, the enthusiasm for purchasing raw materials is relatively low.
"Our grey fabric stock is 60 days, and the looms are currently fully opened, but the raw materials are only 10 days in quantity, which was just bought recently." Said a head of the weaving mill. Another recent order from the weaving mill is okay. The inventory of grey fabrics is not too large, only about 100,000 meters, but the raw material is only enough for 3 days. The majority of weaving mills' current attitude towards raw materials is to buy and use at any time, the reserve length will not exceed 15 days, and the purchase enthusiasm is generally not high.
In fact, the lack of demand for raw materials in weaving mills is mainly due to the negative impact of the continued decline in raw material prices. According to a textile factory owner, they had stored 30,000 tons of raw materials years ago, but the subsequent epidemic situation and the crude oil price war led to a continuous decline in raw material prices. They took the raw materials in their hands to make a loss every day, and now they have no confidence in storing raw materials.
On May 5, the price of raw materials was affected by the rebound of crude oil prices, and rose in an all-round way. Among them, polyester filament yarns increased by 50-150 yuan / ton. The market, which has always been "buying up, not buying down", also performed generally this time, except for two days after the production and sales were more prominent, it immediately resumed its lightness. Before the order demand has substantially improved, it has been difficult to stimulate the enthusiasm of weaving factories to purchase raw materials in large quantities by the rise and fall of raw material prices.
Although the current textile market is still in the off-season as a whole, frequent domestic trade orders have begun to pry the entire market, grey cloth inventory is consumed, and the operating rate is at a high level. And with the gradual increase in the number of countries that have opened up travel restrictions and the deepening of resumption of production, the large number of foreign trade orders placed is also a high probability event. When the demand for fabrics really starts to recover, the upstream raw material prices may really open up the channel, and the production and sales are booming!
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