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9 million tons of polyester will be put into production, and the growth rate of PTA capacity will reach more than 20%!
In recent years, the proportion of China's PTA capacity to global PTA capacity has increased year by year, from 25% in 2007 to 56% in 2017, and China's PTA capacity growth rate and global PTA capacity growth rate keep pace. From 2007 to 2013, the global PTA production capacity developed steadily and rapidly, with an average growth rate of over 9.5%. In the same period, China's PTA capacity growth rate reached more than 20%. Mainly in the years from 2011 to 2013, China's PTA capacity has experienced explosive growth. Xianglu Petrochemical, Yisheng Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical have successively expanded production. China's PTA capacity has historically exceeded 43 million tons, making it the largest in Asia and the world. PTA producers; China's PTA capacity growth has slowed since 2015, mainly due to Far Eastern Petrochemical declared bankruptcy (involving 3.2 million tons of capacity to exit the market), and Tenglong Aromatics PX plant accidental explosion (Xianglu Petrochemical's 4.5 million tons capacity has fallen into the long term The work is to be reorganized, and the other 1.65 million tons of old equipment entered the shutdown state very early. In addition, the high-cost small equipment that other PTA production enterprises have stopped production for a long time, after deducting this part of the production capacity, the Chinese PTA industry is in a phased supply and demand balance.
At present, the peak capacity expansion of the PTA industry is temporarily over. In the two years from 2018 to 2019, China has no new capacity for PTA, but in 2019-2020, China will once again have PTA capacity expansion. In the next two years, China's PTA capacity growth rate will reach more than 20%. PTA capacity growth will reach more than 10%.
China is the largest supplier
From the perspective of global PTA capacity distribution in 2017, PTA production capacity in Asia still dominates. Bloomberg data shows that in 2017, Asia's PTA capacity was 69 million tons, accounting for 85% of the world's total capacity, of which PTA production in China accounted for 56% of the world. From the global demand distribution of PTA, Asian PTA demand accounted for 81% of global demand in 2017, while China's demand accounted for 58%. Overall, China's PTA supply and demand is currently near the equilibrium line, while Northeast Asia's PTA supply is relatively surplus, of which PTA supply in Northeast Asia accounts for 15% of the world, while demand only accounts for 8.4%.
China's polyester production capacity accelerated in the past two years
From the perspective of global PTA demand distribution, China's PTA demand accounted for 58% of the world in 2017, which means that China's polyester production capacity is also the largest in the world. From the perspective of China's PTA and polyester capacity growth, the overall supply and demand pattern of the downstream polyester market in 2016 has been significantly improved. In 2017-2018, the polyester industry's business climate continued to rise, and the profit of polyester products was good, resulting in a large production capacity of polyester. Expansion, the growth rate of polyester capacity in the past two years is greater than the growth rate of PTA capacity. In 2017, the new polyester production capacity was about 4.5 million tons (including the restart of some old equipment). In 2018, the polyester production plan is about 6 million tons, and it is expected to be 2019- In 2020, polyester will still have a production plan of about 9 million tons.
Prospects for the development of the PTA industry chain
At present, China is the world's largest producer and consumer of PTA. China's PTA capacity accounts for about 56% of global PTA capacity, accounting for about 65% of Asia's PTA capacity. China's PTA demand accounts for 58% of global demand, accounting for Asian demand. 71%. However, in terms of raw material PX, there is a huge PX gap in China. Therefore, China’s imports of PX have also increased in recent years. In the next two years, with the commissioning of China's large refining and chemical plants, Hengli Petrochemical, Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinopec Hainan and Shenghong Petrochemical, the PX self-sufficiency rate will gradually increase. By 2020, China's PX can basically meet domestic demand.
At the same time, the trade pattern of the global PX market will also change after 2020. Judging from the current PX trade flow, South Korea and Japan's PX capacity in Northeast Asia is overcapacity, mainly because PX consumption in these two countries is in a stage of decline, and excess PX is mainly exported to China. Especially in South Korea, since China's last round of PTA installations were put into production, South Korea's PX exports have increased year by year. Currently, about half of China's PX imports come from South Korea. In the future, with the increase of China's PX capacity, the excess PX capacity in Northeast Asia will not be domestically digested, and it may face a reduction in production. By then, China will be the country with the largest proportion of the middle and lower reaches of the global PTA industry chain, and the global pricing discourse. The right will also be enhanced.
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