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According to the voice of the Chinese village, "Three Rural China", after June this year, domestic cotton prices have embarked on a long-term search, from the highest price of 19,000 yuan / ton, to nearly 15,000 yuan / ton. On October 26, the main contract of cotton in the Zhengzhou Commodity Futures Exchange, the 1901 contract, continued to open lower. It fell below 15,000 yuan/ton in intraday trading, hitting a new low of nearly 10 months at 14,980 yuan/ton.
At present, the national cotton harvest is under intense progress. What is the new cotton production this year? With the new cotton market, how will the cotton market change?
October is the harvest season, and 20 million mu of cotton in southern Xinjiang has a good harvest. Different from the past, Xinjiang has adhered to market orientation on the basis of the implementation of cotton target price reform this year. Different blocks and different planting patterns have significant effects on cotton production and prices. The Aksu area is the largest cotton producing area in Xinjiang.
Tan Ming, a farmer from Yangkaili Village, Hongqi Town, Shaya County, planted 500 mu of cotton. Due to the use of precision seeding and under-film drip irrigation technology, and effective management, his cotton yield is over 400 kg per mu, and there is no problem in bumper harvest.
Tan Ming: Today, I came to sell cotton and pulled 12 tons. The price is seven yuan. I sold nearly one hundred tons in the early stage and fifty or sixty tons in the back. The price is OK.
The cotton farmer in the Awati County, Liuzhishan, is planted in an order mode, and with the implementation of a refined planting management model, his family's cotton is not only high in output, but also has a considerable sales price.
Liu Zhishan: Like we signed a contract, the past is 7 or so, which is 2 to 3 cents higher than ordinary cotton. Now it has received about ten tons, about 80 tons will be received, and the net income is about 160,000 yuan.
However, in Wensu County, the sub-diet area of 100 km away, the cotton farmers are not in a good mood.
Wen Su cotton farmers Wu Changchang: The main reason is that there is too much rain this year, the cotton growth period has been delayed, and the output is not good. More than 400 kilograms last year, more than 300 kilograms this year, the price sold 7 zero 5 points.
The neighboring city of Aksu is affected by the climate, and the growth of cotton cannot keep up with last year.
Cotton Farmer Xiong Shiyong: I have planted more than 500 mu of land. This year, due to the impact of the climate, the output is low and the selling price is much lower than last year. Last year, I sold 7 blocks of 7 and 7 blocks. Only 7 pieces were sold this year, and there are 7 pieces and 1 piece.
According to Sun Liwu, an analyst at Zhuochuang Information, the recent trend of domestic cotton is relatively dull, and spot and futures prices have fallen. At present, the national cotton harvest is under intense progress. According to the national cotton market monitoring system data, as of October 19, the national new cotton picking progress was 59.8%, and the country's cumulative sales of seed cotton-folded cotton was 2.431 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 580,000 tons. But cotton has ushered in low prices.
Sun Liwu: Recently, the price of the "double 28" grade gross weight of hand-picked cotton has dropped to 16,000-16100 yuan / ton, the "double 29" gross weight price is 16200-16300 yuan / ton, while the cost of northern Xinjiang is lower, Kuitun, Changji, Shihezi, etc. The pick-up price of the ground cotton picking supervision warehouse was also lowered by 200 yuan/ton from the previous few days, and the gross weight of 3128/3129 grades was 15500-15800 yuan/ton. The transaction price of low-quality and low-grade machine cotton fell below 15,000 yuan/ton.
A large number of new cottons went on the market and prices fell, which led to aggravation of the market's psychological expectations of buying up and not buying. Sun Liwu expects cotton production in Xinjiang this year will be higher than last year.
Sun Liwu: According to Zhuo Chuang Information Research and Monitoring, the national cotton output in 2018-2019 was slightly higher than last year. The main reason is that Xinjiang has a large increase in area, and the weather is good for yield improvement. In September, the cotton output in Xinjiang is estimated to be 5.2 million tons. National cotton production reached 5.96 million tons. Although snowfall has occurred in some parts of Xinjiang in the near future, snowfall has limited impact on major cotton producing areas.
According to the monthly supply and demand report recently released by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, China's cotton production in the year of 2018-2019 was 5.8 million tons, and the reduction in cotton production was small. However, international cotton production continued to grow during the same period. After entering October, while the national reserve cotton continued to be auctioned, the new cotton was listed in large quantities, and the price showed a downward trend. The psychological expectation that the market bought up and did not buy down increased, which caused the cotton price to continue to fall. From the market outlook, the cotton price is still difficult. There is a big rise.
Sun Liwu: From the current market situation, with the new cotton centralized listing, a large number of old warehouse receipts to suppress the trend of Zheng cotton, cotton sales pressure, the short-term market is still oversupply, cotton prices are unlikely to rise sharply. The problem of the structure and quantity of the national reservoir is outstanding, and the domestic long-term gap still exists. It is expected that the cotton price will fluctuate in the fourth quarter.
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